Friday, 18 January 2008

Forecasting the US Election

Everyone is having a go in January at forecasting.
The weather, the economy, the US election and the best one of all ,consumer confidence .

We are all doomed/we are all talking up a recession.
The US is going into recession/the election is about the economy(stupid).
The property market is going to have a soft landing/building contractors have booked their space in the dole queues.
Benchmarking is dead/Long live benchmarking.

Firstly, we are all earning more than we ever have.
We give out about immigration instead of emmigration of the past.We don't have a brain drain, we have a brain swell - we almost have an overabundance of talent both naturalised,inherant and imported.
So what if the US is going into recession, it may help in the reduction of oil consumption.
Our euro is stronger- yes it affects exporters negatively but is affect importers positively and Ireland is one of the largest importers of goods in Europe.
The property market can have a soft landing - look at the property ad in today's Irish Independent - 'Janey Mack' - brilliant - the developer dropped his price !
So instead of a markup of 300% its a markup of 200%.

As for benchmarking - its not a guarantee of income increment - its a measure of your work compared to others.If you want to go on strike - it makes as much sense as the GAA players going on strike from their hobby - what's the point?

No one is guaranteed income rises - we all have to work to get where we are - which back to my point is we are all a lot better off.

Yes there are things that need fixing - the health service, the roads, public transport - but let's do something about it as opposed to pointing fingers,threatening strikes, and bemoaning life in general.
That talks up a recession.

Get the stakeholders into a room - leave the baggage at the door, and work together to to agreeing something for everyone.

The Economy is in recession - I remain to be convinced...

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